2Q2025 Global Economic Outlook

Our real estate equity and debt strategies are offered by BGO, a leading real estate asset manager with a more than 100-year history. BGO offers clients investment, lending, and property management services rooted in the global markets.

Highlights

• Trade policy remains uncertain
• Scenarios look broadly favorable
• Central banks face complex math
• Downside risk remains notable
• CRE could fare relatively well

The global economy finds itself in an unusual situation in the second quarter. For the first time in roughly 100 years, and for the first time since the advent of the modern, integrated global economy, significant changes in trade policy have created ripples throughout the world. To date, the situation remains highly variable, creating significant uncertainty. Therefore, these unusual times call for somewhat unusual analyses. In that spirit, this quarterly global outlook will take a somewhat different approach versus the previous quarterly outlooks. We have used our proprietary global econometric model to produce three broad scenarios: a base case, an upside case, and a downside case. Each scenario includes a discussion of the underlying assumptions, the current analysis and outlook, and the broad implications for the global commercial real estate (CRE) market. This economic outlook will be closely followed by the initial publication of our quarterly global CRE outlook, which will provide a more in-depth analysis of the global CRE market.